منابع مشابه
Are Conservatives Overconfident?∗
Recent studies suggest psychological differences between conservatives and liberals, including that conservatives are more overconfident. We use a behavioral political economy model to show that while this is undoubtedly true for election years in the current era, there is no reason to believe that conservative ideologies are intrinsically linked to overconfidence. Indeed, it appears that in 19...
متن کاملAre Pension Fund Managers Overconfident?
Empirical studies show that people tend to be overconfident about the precision of their knowledge, leading to miscalibration. Consistent with this, we found that on overage the decision makers of Swiss pension plans provide too narrow confidence intervals when asked to estimate the past return of various assets. Their confidence intervals are also systematically too narrow in their forecast of...
متن کاملDoes the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: Two Experiments.∗
We conduct two experiments of the claim that people are overconfident, using new tests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, we find apparently overconfident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the quizze...
متن کاملDoes the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: An Experiment*
* This paper was previously circulated as “A Proper Test of Overconfidence”. We thank Uriel Haran for help with data collection as well as the staff and facilities of the Center for Behavioral Decision Research at Carnegie Mellon University. # email: [email protected] Abstract We conduct a proper test of the claim that people are overconfident, in the sense that they believe that they are better...
متن کاملAre CEOs expected utility maximizers?
Are individuals expected utility maximizers? This question represents much more than academic curiosity. In a normative sense, at stake are the fundamental underpinnings of the bulk of the last halfcentury’s models of choice under uncertainty. From a positive perspective, the ubiquitous use of benefitcost analysis across government agencies renders the expected utility maximization paradigm lit...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2011
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1598021